Moderate US consumption – Bordier Monday report

In the euro zone, the ZEW confidence index accelerated in December.

Economy

In the United States, published statistics were disappointing, with the exception of SME confidence (NFIB index) which recovered in November (from 91.3 to 91.9) and weaker than expected consumer price growth (+0 .1% m/m; +7.1% s/s). Retail sales (-0.6% m/m) and industrial production (-0.2% m/m) disappointed in November, as did the PMIs for industry (from 47.7 to 46.2) and services (from 46.2 to 44.4) in December. In the euro zone, the ZEW confidence index recovered (from -38.7 to -23.6) in December. While industrial production was below expectations in October (-2% m/m), the PMIs for industry (from 47.1 to 47.8) and services (from 48.5 to 49.1) surprised on the upside. Finally in China, retail sales (-5.9% y/y), industrial production (+2.2% y/y) and investments (+5.3% y/y) disappointed in November.

planetary limits

Within the framework of the EU’s climate objectives, Parliament and the Council of Europe reached an agreement for the creation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): imports of products entering European territory will have to pay a carbon compensation fee corresponding to the carbon cost borne by domestic producers through the ETS (European Trading Scheme) mechanism.

Obligations

In the United States, the Fed raised its base rate by 50 bp to 4.25%-4.50% and revised its peak expectations for 2023 to 5.1% (+50 bp). However, rates ended lower (10Y: -11bp), driven by lower-than-expectation November inflation (0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected). In Europe, the ECB raised its key rate by 50bp with a very “hawkish” speech by Christine Lagarde, confirming in particular the maintenance of the rate of 50bp/increase. Terminal rate expectations rose 50bp to 3.25% and sovereign rates reacted strongly to the increase (10Y Bund +24bp/10Y BTP +46bp).

Merchant’s sentiment

changing socks

After a week marked by central bank rate hikes, indexes took the hit, with participants fearing a recession. The opening of European markets in the green this morning may not last and the Christmas rally could take place in a context of weak liquidity / short coverage. Few ecological figures until the end of the year that could change the situation.

Coins

After touching €/$1.0738, the € was penalized by risk aversion and is trading this morning at 1.0630. A break of 1.0506 support would lead to a larger correction at res. 1.0736 remains valid. The $ recovers some strength: $/CHF 0.9301, sup. 0.9194, res. 0.9550. The £ break at 1.2210 res. 1.2447, sup. 1.1710. The CHF dropped slightly to: €/CHF 0.9890, up. 0.9550, res. 0.9957. The ounce of gold is $1797 sup. 1765 and res. 1824.

Markets

Major central banks raised their key rates and the “hawkish” tone adopted lifted 10-year sovereign yields in Europe (~+24bp) and Switzerland (~+10bp). In the US, reassuring inflation numbers helped to offset and US rates fell by ~11bp. Credit spreads widened and equities fell (US & EM: -2.1%; Europe: -3.3%). The dollar is fairly stable (dollar index: -0.1%), gold is down 0.5% and oil is up 3.6%. To watch this week: Home Developers’ Confidence (NAHB), Home Construction, Building Permits and US Consumer Confidence; household confidence and trade balance in the euro area; 1 and 5 year interest rates in China.

swiss market

To watch this week: October Building Price Index (OFS), KOF Consensus Forecast, November Foreign Trade/Exports Watch (Ofdf) and Third Quarter Balance of Payments (BNS). In the absence of major corporate news, this morning we saw a moderate recovery in indexes, with little dispersion in performance.

Actions

ADOBE (Core Holding) posted a strong fourth quarter (Sales +10% YoY and EPS +6% YoY) and maintained its fiscal 2023 outlook despite macroeconomic headwinds. The market, however, remains vigilant in the face of deteriorating demand for software, which will still prevail in 2023.

EPIROC (Core Holding) acquires the Australian CR, specialist in tools, consumables and associated digital solutions for the mining industry, performing c. Annual revenue of AUD 240 million, or around 3.4% of Epiroc’s expected revenue for 2022.

INDITEX (Core Holding) posted strong third-quarter results last week, beating expectations at all levels (revenue, organic sales growth, EBIT, EPS). Note the sustained commercial activity in the 3rd quarter (+11% y/y) despite the less favorable weather (Indian summer) for the autumn/winter collections and its continued dynamism in the first 6 weeks of the 4th quarter (+12% y/y /a) with a base effect that will be favorable (Omicron impact last year). This performance, confident management in the fourth quarter and a promising start to 2023 clearly set Inditex apart from its retail peers.

chart of the day

acting

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