New warning less than two weeks from COP27: the commitments of the signatory countries of the Paris agreement are still “a long way” from what would be necessary to hope to fulfill the objectives of the fight against global warming.
Far from limiting the rise in temperatures to 1.5°C or 2°C, the treaty’s two emblematic figures, the greenhouse gas emission reduction plans of 193 signatory parties “could put the world on a path to ‘a warming of 2.5°C by the end of the century’, warns the UN climate agency in its latest summary of commitments received.
And that’s even with almost 1.2°C of warming, the world is already facing the devastating impacts of climate change, as illustrated by the catastrophic procession of floods, heat waves, droughts or mega-fires that marked the year 2022.
Far from a world at +1.5°
At the latest world climate conference, COP26, held a year ago in Glasgow, countries nevertheless committed to increasing their “National Determined Contributions” (NDCs) each year rather than every five years as anticipated. in the agreement signed in 2015.
But as of September 23, the deadline for them to be considered ahead of the new conference to be held November 6-18 in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh, only 24 countries had submitted a new or enhanced NDC. A “disappointing” figure acknowledged UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell.
“We are a long way from the level and speed of emission reductions needed to put us on the path to a +1.5°C world,” he stressed in a written commentary to this summary. “To keep this target (1.5°C) alive, governments must strengthen their plans now and implement them over the next eight years,” he insisted.
45% reduction by 2030 required
Because, according to UN experts, global emissions must fall by 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, to meet this goal, set in relation to the average temperatures of the pre-industrial era, when Humanity started to massively use fuels. fossils, producing greenhouse gases that cause global warming.
Very far from the new synthesis of the NDCs, according to which the current commitments would, on the contrary, lead to a 10.6% increase in emissions over the same period. A late glimmer of hope, they would allow for a drop in emissions after 2030, which did not happen last year.
“Many” plans “uncertain”
In a separate study on long-term strategies for “carbon neutrality” published on Wednesday, UN Climate estimates that emissions from countries that have adopted these plans could drop by around 68% if they are actually implemented. But he soon warns that “many” of these plans are “uncertain” and without concrete application.
“COP27 is an opportunity for world leaders to reinvigorate the fight against climate change,” continued Stiell, calling for action that “reflects the urgency, the severity of the threats and the short time available to us. of uncontrolled climate change”.
Little time for a livable future
According to Egypt, “more than 90” leaders from around the world are expected to attend the summit to be held in the first days of the conference.
The latest report by UN climate experts (IPCC), published in 2021/22, highlighted how little time remains to secure a “livable future” for humanity. But scientists point out that every fraction of a degree of avoided warming counts and that action must therefore be taken.
“The report (on the NDCs) and the IPCC report are useful reminders,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Choukri, who will chair COP27, said in a statement on Wednesday. “It is essential to raise ambitions and urgently implement them (…) to protect us from severe climate impacts and devastating loss and damage”, he underlined.
This article was automatically published. Sources: ats/afp