Strong uncertainty around “Lex Netflix”

“Netflix Lex” is losing ground

It is not certain that the Federal Council can celebrate three sims on May 15th. Indeed, opposition to the new film law is steadily growing, as the latest gfs.bern poll conducted on behalf of the SSR and released this morning shows.

The Bernan institute credits the cinema law, known as “Lex Netflix”, with 56% favorable opinions and 41% not. The proportion of undecided, long on the rise, has dropped to 3%. Experts note “a no bias during the main campaign phase”. The majority in favor of yes is “very weak” in German-speaking Switzerland, more pronounced in Latin lands. Women, the elderly and people with above-average education support the text, whose points of debate are the obligation to invest in Swiss cinema imposed on streaming platforms and TV channels that broadcast Swiss advertisements.

Even if the undecided are fewer, they will tip the scales a little. In the respective camps, it is estimated that the vote of the elderly, less concerned about the issue, can feed the reservoir of sims.

To watch and read: “Netflix Law”: Should streaming platforms finance Swiss cinema?

People who declare themselves outside the party, a priori younger, are “affected by a solid tendency of no”. The support of centrists and liberal greens – even if their youth sections fight the law – seems right.

In fact, the decisive party for the result of the vote is the PLR. Its representatives in the Federal Chambers broadly endorsed the law; but the party then voted with a good majority no. It seems that the PLR ​​is heavily grouped behind the no: “the party’s base lined up, as was to be expected, in the committee’s slogan”, the researchers indicate.

We might add that the party’s divisions at the local level weaken its initial approval. Only the Geneva, Vaud – lip service – and Ticino sections approve the proposal. Even the liberal radicals of Neuchâtel and Jura say no. Geneva represents the stronghold of cinema in French-speaking Switzerland: the argument of support for the branch undoubtedly comes into play here. But in Zurich, the national audiovisual capital, PLR refuses. It is for this reason, in particular, that film law advocates have cause for concern.

Find our file:“Lex Netflix”: the battle of the Swiss audiovisual sector

Extensive support for Frontex

As far as Frontex is concerned, the outcome is much less uncertain. The EU regulation on the European Border and Coast Guard should, in fact, be taken over by Switzerland. In fact, 69% of respondents would support this additional participation, 25% would oppose it and only 6% are still undecided. The acceptance is clearer than during the first vote on March 18 (63% yes and 34% no), especially since, since then, the assembly of delegates of the SVP has decided to follow the position of its federal adviser Ueli Maurer, in charge of customs and support this project. Supporters of other right and center parties clearly say yes, while the Greens and Socialists are divided, with a slight edge to no. Opposition has also waned in French-speaking Switzerland, where now two-thirds of respondents say they are in favor of strengthening the European border management agency. The clincher in the yes field is the importance of protecting the external borders of the Schengen area.

It should be noted that this inquiry was carried out before the resignation of the director of Frontex. The camp did not immediately take advantage of this news, which, according to them, would prove the serious dysfunctions of the agency. But that shouldn’t change the end result.

Read too: Entangled in business, Frontex boss throws in the towel

The researchers conclude by emphasizing that: “Any result other than a clear adoption of the Frontex project would therefore be very surprising”.

Facilitation of organ donation

Last object presented to the people on May 15, the modification of the law on transplants introducing the presumed consent of the organ donor. It would be accepted by 61% of voters, while 37% are opposed and 2% are still undecided. In one month, the trend remained stable, in the first survey, the yes was 63%. Even though organ donation is more of a social issue than a political one, there is still a division according to the parties. So voters on the left and the PLR ​​are very clearly in favor. SVP supporters are even more opposed to this transplant law than they were a month ago.

Read too: A change in the law proposes to see one organ donor in each Switzerland

In the field of yes, the two decisive arguments are the lack of organ donation in Switzerland and the lightening of the burden on relatives, who should no longer decide by delegation. On the opponents’ side, most consider it problematic to take organs from a person without their explicit consent.

On ethical grounds, surprises are never excluded, but according to gfs.bern, yes it is “the most plausible scenario”.

As these three objects are referendums, only the popular majority counts.

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