O sales world of electric and hybrid cars rechargeable have more than doubled in 2021increasing the share of electrified cars to 16.7 million units. This increase is due to the expansion of the manufacturers’ offer, but also to the growing pressure on users and in particular the need for a carbon neutrality in transport by 2050.
While these growth figures remain impressive, it should not be assumed that the electrified car – and by electrical extension – will impose itself just as easily, says study Electric Vehicle Perspectives produced by BloombergNEF.
The organization thus dissects the park’s world figures and indicates that the docking cars (including hybrids) weigh for 9% of the market (6.6 million units) while for two wheels this mix increases to 42%. BloombergNEF estimates that in 2025 sales will reach 20.6 million electric and plug-in hybrid cars, which will represent 6% of the total park. The organization obviously indicates that the the reality will be very different from one region to another due to local policies, but also to socio-economic conditions and political will.
Which regions as locomotives?
According to BloombergNEFthis one China and theEurope that will accommodate most of this electrified car fleet. Indeed, 39% of the total production of new electrified cars will end up in circulation in these territories with a net value advantage for the China whose total fleet will then count 13% plug-in cars and 8% per’Europe. certain countries of Europe will, however, act more like a locomotives, such as France or Germany, which will account for 50% of electrified cars in their new registrations. We can logically expect this to be the case in Belgiumespecially with our system of company cars and the fiscal generosity that go with it. The United States, on the other hand, will lag behind with just 15% of electrified car sales, according to BloombergNEF. This can be explained by the extension of the territory, but also by the lack of supply of electric or hybrid pickups, a genre still widely acclaimed throughout the Atlantic.
BloombergNEF predicts that gasoline and diesel car sales will continue to lower : within three years (2025) they will have decreased by another 19%, but it will still be necessary wait until 2027 so that the demand for these fuels begins to decline. For now, BloombergNEF indicates that the number of electric or plug-in hybrid cars on the road saves 1.5 million barrels a day, or 3% of fuel demand for road transport.
Delicate long-term forecasts
BloombergNEF further explains that predictions long term stay complicated. Because we still do not know the intentions of certain regions in this regard. Consequently, if other territories imposed, as the Commission did, the withdrawal of thermal vehicles within a certain period, things could change more or less quickly.
BloombergNEF believes, however, that in 2040the market will represent approx. 70 million electrified cars, which is only 3.5 times more than the 2025 forecast (20.6 million). This would correspond, therefore, to around 90% of the market, but with the condition of remaining at the current level, which is very low due to the crisis. The global market should really revolve around 100 million cars produced and not around 80 million as is the case today.
BloombergNEF indicates that to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, given the global replacement rate, all thermal cars disappeared from dealerships by 2038 at the latest. BloombergNEF ends by saying that today the planet matters 1.8 million charging points, an infrastructure that needs to grow to a range of 340 to 490 million to have a viable environment for electrified cars. These cars must also, according to the expert, increase electricity consumption by 27%. It is therefore high time for Belgium to think seriously about its energy future, its independence and the efficiency of its sources of production.